In recent months, the evolving landscape of computing technology, particularly the rise of Artificial Intelligence Personal Computers (AIPC), has spurred a significant shift in the global PC market dynamics. This seismic development emphasizes the growing demand for high-performance local models that can host advanced AI applications without relying on cloud-based infrastructures. Leading the charge in this transformation is the Chinese securities firm Guotai Junan, which projects that the shipment volumes for AIPC will quickly escalate, catalyzing the entire PC industry’s progression toward the mid-to-high end of the market spectrum.

Historically, personal computers have been the go-to platform for executing more extensive local models due to their superior processing capabilities, compared to other devices such as smartphones or tablets. One of the central contributing factors to this shift is the introduction of innovative models such as those from Deepseek, which leverage lower hardware adaptation costs and demonstrate exceptional inference performance. By employing distilled versions of these models across various parameter sizes—ranging from 1.5 billion to over 70 billion parameters—users can deploy powerful AI solutions directly on their PCs. This not only enhances performance but also allows for data privacy and customized optimizations tailored to specific user requirements.

The explosion of demand for AIPC is underscored by Canalys’s projections indicating that AIPC shipments are expected to reach 100 million units by 2025, constituting nearly 40% of the overall PC market. If the trends continue, this number could swell to over 205 million units by 2028, amounting to an astonishing 70% market share. This rapid growth trajectory implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of a remarkable 44% between 2024 and 2028, indicating a robust shift in consumer preferences toward high-performance PC setups.

As these advancements take shape, terminal manufacturers are gaining more authority within the ecosystem, shifting from traditional hardware producers to holistic ecosystem orchestrators. Notably, the latest data from IDC suggests that the overall PC shipment volume in 2024 is expected to reach 262.7 million units, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 1%. Lenovo, a dominant player in the industry, is anticipated to see its shipment rise by 4.7% in 2024, securing its position at the forefront of this transition.

Furthermore, the deployment of AIPC and local model capabilities exerts tremendous pressure on core components due to the increased demand for high-capacity, high-speed memory systems. These system enhancements call for advanced high-bandwidth DDR5 memory and GPU configurations that can support models with parameter sizes of 32 billion and above, necessitating at least 24GB of GPU and substantial additional memory to ensure optimal function. As these demands heighten, we can anticipate that other associated parts, such as IC substrates and PCBs, will also witness price increases and heightened demand.

Accompanying this transformation is the need for structural changes in component production, particularly with manufacturers transitioning to lighter materials like magnesium alloys and carbon fibers. These materials not only reduce the weight of devices but also improve thermal management and performance—crucial factors as the power consumption and electromagnetic interference from high-performance AIPC systems escalate. Major brands, like Lenovo, have already started incorporating these materials into their products, exemplifying a commitment to delivering powerful yet lightweight designs.

In light of the growing need for local model deployments, the demand for AIPC is set to surge significantly. For example, models from Deepseek have showcased remarkable performance across diverse applications. Leveraging their small-scale models (like 15B, 32B, or 70B variants), organizations can deploy potent AI knowledge management systems locally, effectively protecting sensitive data from potential breaches and unauthorized access. Implementing systems such as AnythingLLM and Ollama enables seamless integrations that bolster efficiency while customizing the models according to specific user requirements.

Microsoft's collaboration with Deepseek, enabling local deployment of the 1.5B model and preparing to roll out versions with 7B and 14B parameters, signifies an exciting breakthrough in this space. As of January 30, 2023, Microsoft announced support for Deepseek-R1 models within its Azure AI and GitHub environments, allowing for substantial advancements in local computing capabilities. Such partnerships are likely to amplify the sense of urgency among personal and corporate users to upgrade their PCs to meet the AIPC requirements.

PCs, characterized by their multifaceted functionalities, provide outstanding productivity tools unmatched by other devices. Their large screens, high-resolution displays, and superior multitasking capabilities make them ideal for various applications—from remote conferencing and graphic design to software development. The potential of local model deployment further enhances this ecosystem, solidifying the PC's status as the most versatile personal computing device available.

Privacy remains a crucial consideration in this technological evolution. Local model deployment circumvents the risks associated with transferring sensitive data across networks, particularly for industries like finance and healthcare. Storing and processing data on local devices significantly minimizes the risk of leaks, ensuring stringent protection against unauthorized access.

In addition to privacy, there is a notable trend towards deeper system integration and the development of personalized knowledge bases. When AI models are deployed locally, they can be easily interconnected with other corporate systems, such as Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Customer Relationship Management (CRM) platforms. This integration allows seamless data sharing and automation across business processes, ultimately enhancing operational efficiency. As AIPC solutions evolve with the capacity to personalize knowledge contexts, enterprises can rapidly elevate task accuracy and efficiency.

Compliance and auditing are other pivotal advantages of AIPC deployment. With stringent data protection regulations now commonplace in various jurisdictions worldwide, local deployments can better align with these compliance standards. By retaining complete operational logs, organizations can fortify their defense against regulatory violations that might lead to hefty fines or legal repercussions.

Moreover, local processing facilitates offline functionality and instantaneous responses. A local model does not require ongoing network connectivity, allowing for immediate data processing and outcomes without the lag associated with cloud computations. In environments where bandwidth is limited or unreliable, local deployments ensure that applications operate smoothly, combining efficiency with maximal performance reliability.

Lastly, the independence afforded by local deployments diminishes reliance on external networks and cloud service providers, bolstering both autonomy and adaptability for users. As AIPC technologies continue advancing, significant shifts in the supply chain dynamics will likely emerge, with core components experiencing heightened demand, and terminal manufacturers evolving to orchestrate a complete ecosystem of interactivity.

As we approach 2025, indications suggest that the industry is on the brink of an upgrade cycle, with Lenovo poised to reap considerable benefits as the leading player in the market. With IDC forecasting a steady increase in global PC shipments, Lenovo’s anticipated growth further exemplifies the evolution of AIPC alongside the overall advancement of the PC industry.